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Nov 01
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What to Expect and How to Prepare for a Recession

By Blog, Financial Planning

Prepare for a RecessionEconomists generally determine that the country has fallen into a recession after two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Since 1967, the United States has experienced seven recessions.

The thing is, predicting a recession is a little like predicting a tornado. Experts are never exactly sure if or when one will occur, but they can cite when conditions a ripe for one based past experience. The good news for predictors is that the economy follows a similar pattern of indicators in the months leading up to a recession.

The bad news is that many those indicators have recently emerged. For example:

  • Inverted Yield Curve – This is when the yield on longer-term Treasury bonds is lower than the yield on shorter-term Treasury bonds, which happened recently for the first time since 2007. On average, an inverted yield curve has occurred 14 months in advance of every recession in the past 50 years.
  • Corporate Profits – Estimates for corporate earnings growth have dropped substantially since last year, from 7.6 percent to 2.3 percent.
  • Global Trade – The ongoing U.S. trade war with China has resulted in weakness in the manufacturing and farming industries. Moreover, global trade volume is also down, which further reduces the market for U.S.-manufactured goods.

What to Expect in a Recession

The worst recession in U.S. history was the most recent one, between 2007 and 2009. Dubbed the Great Recession, it was short (compared to the Great Depression of 1929-1939) but it took a powerful toll on a large chunk of the population. For example, close to half of U.S. households lost at least 25 percent of their net worth; one out of every four households lost at least 75 percent of their net worth.

About one-third of households experienced one or more of the following:

  • Fell more than two months behind on their mortgage
  • Had their home foreclosed
  • Had their home equity drop into negative territory
  • Lost a job

That was a bad recession. Fortunately, while economists are seeing signs of another one on the horizon, as of now (absent any significant shocks) they do not expect it to be as severe.

Tips to Prepare for a Recession

With multiple warning signs evident, it appears we do have some time before a recession potentially hits. It’s a good idea to use this time to protect your financial situation to help minimize any impact that a recession can have on you personally. The following are some tips to consider.

Shore Up Your Finances

Start by reducing your debt as much as possible, particularly any accounts exposed to a variable interest rate. The interest on credit cards and home equity lines of credit have a habit of increasing when you can least afford it. If you have a variable rate mortgage you might want to refinance at today’s low fixed mortgage rates so your monthly payments do not increase. One way to generate a robust savings fund is to temporarily suspend contributions to a retirement plan and save that money in a readily available account.

Minimize Household Expenses

Most people have to cut back on household expenses during a recession, so you might as well start now to help you prepare. For example, consider trading in a gas-guzzling car for one with better gas mileage and lower monthly payments, or pull the plug on cable TV and switch to a streaming service. Deploying these cost-reduction strategies now not only reduces your expenses during a recession but will also help contribute to your savings fund.

In many areas of the country, real estate prices are at the top of the market. It might be worth considering selling your house now while you can get a good price. This will give you a pot of cash to sit on during the recession, which is especially helpful if you lose your job. In fact, after the sale you may consider renting until real estate prices drop and you can purchase another home at a good price – and maintain a healthy cache of savings. This strategy could also save you from raiding your investment portfolio for money – helping protect your future financial security.

Protect Your Investment Portfolio

Take a good look at your portfolio and give it a recession stress test. Consider reallocating some funds to options that tend to perform reliably during an economic decline, such as:

  • Government bonds
  • Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)
  • Corporate Inflation-Protected Securities (CIPS)
  • Consumer staples stocks
  • Well-established dividend stocks
  • Fixed Income Annuity (FIA)

Recognize that it is generally not a good idea to completely cash out of the market. The best way to accumulate wealth over time is to stay invested regardless of temporary economic declines. In fact, investors who maintained their market positions between 2007 and 2017 experienced an average 240 percent growth rate.

Once the recession has ended, think about rebalancing your portfolio to realign its strategic asset allocation with your investment objectives and timeline. This allows you to cash in on outperforming assets and buy into depressed securities that could be poised for post-recession growth.

Nov 01
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How Will Ongoing China Trade Tensions Tensions Impact Consumer Spending?

By Blog, Stock Market News

China Trade Tensions 2019According to the U.S. Department of Commerce and the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales came in at a negative 0.3 percent for September, even though it’s still 4.1 percent more than September 2018’s report. The same report followed up on August 2019’s numbers, with a revision by the agency to 0.6 percent, up from 0.4 percent. With the ongoing U.S.-China trade war and tariff uncertainty, how will consumer spending be impacted?

Current State of Trade and Tariffs

With phase one agreed to, at least in principle, at the end of the meeting with Chinese Vice Premier Liu on Oct. 11, President Trump agreed to keep tariffs at 25 percent on $250 billion in Chinese imports, instead of increasing the tariffs to 30 percent. Additional tariffs also are threatened to be imposed on Dec. 15 for other goods, depending on future negotiations. However, by then the fourth quarter will be nearly completed, so this will probably lessen the likelihood of reduced U.S. consumer spending during the holiday shopping season.

According to an Oct. 3 press release, the National Retail Federation (NRF) projects that consumer purchases for the 2019 holiday season will come in between $727.9 billion and $730.7 billion. The current holiday spending is projected to grow between 3.8 percent and 4.2 percent compared to 2018. It’s important to note that the NRF’s 2019 projections don’t include restaurants, auto dealerships or gas stations. And the projections are higher despite an average retail sales growth of 3.7 percent over the past five years.

The NRF says that along with interest rate and global economic concerns and a politicizing of the economy, trade is an equally concerning factor for retail sales.   

As the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) announced an additional 10 percent of tariffs on $300 billion in Chinese imports, effective Sept. 1, the NRF explained that consumer confidence was shaken. A September 2019 NRF survey found that 79 percent of retail shoppers were worried that tariffs will increase the prices of goods they would be buying.

With the USTR reporting on Aug. 23 that $112 billion of Chinese imports will face tariffs of 15 percent, up from 10 percent, on Sept. 1, the NRF explains how it impacts consumer items, especially footwear and apparel. The NRF gives a few examples of how consumers, specifically football fans, will be impacted negatively.

Footballs made in China are now subject to 15 percent tariffs, no longer 10 percent. While sweatshirts, T-shirts and jerseys (for football and all professional sports teams made in China), are subject to a 15 percent tariff – this is still a sizeable cost increase. If these were subject to 25 percent tariffs, research by the Trade Partnership done for the NRF found that it would cost U.S. consumers $4.4 billion extra for this type of apparel.

While it hasn’t happened yet, the $160 billion of Chinese imports currently subject to 10 percent tariffs are expected to be increased to a 15 percent tariff on Dec. 15. While it’s still expected to be implemented at the tail end of Q4, any effects will naturally be felt in 2020.

While there’s no way to determine how tariffs will impact retail sales officially calculated, consumers will certainly take a second look at prices whether or not they make a purchase.

Nov 01
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LIFO Versus FIFO and How Each Method Values Inventory

By Blog, General Business News

LIFO Versus FIFOAs the name implies, First-In, First-Out (FIFO) is a way for companies to value their inventory. The first items put into inventory or produced by the company are accordingly the first taken out of inventory or transferred to customers and therefore expensed. When it comes to accounting for acquisition and/or production costs, initial and earlier costs are the first to be expensed, with more recent costs staying on the balance sheet to be expensed later.

Assume a company already has 200 widgets costing $4/widget. From there, the company increased its inventory at three more times during a selected accounting period. Three hypothetical, additional purchases include:

200 widgets @ $6/widget

200 widgets @ $7/widget

200 widgets @ $8/widget

If the company had 500 widgets purchased, there would be different considerations be it FIFO or LIFO. First, we’ll discuss FIFO.

For the 500 widgets sold to customers, the FIFO’s Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) (assuming there are no additional inputs that would increase the COGS for simplicity sake) would be $2,700.

This calculation will look at how COGS works for FIFO:

200 initial widgets costing $4/widget = $800 in COGS  

200 widgets from the first additional purchase, costing $6/widget = $1,200 in COGS

100 widgets from the second additional purchase, costing $7/widget = $700 in COGS

For a total of $2,700 in COGS

Assuming there were no purchases during the selected accounting period, there would be 300 widgets remaining in inventory, or $3,000 in inventory costs. The inventory would show up on the balance sheet, according to the following calculation:

200 widgets @ $7/widget = $1,400 in inventory

200 widgets @ $8/widget = $1,600 in inventory

Now this is compared to LIFO, or Last-In, First-Out, which accounts for expenses by looking at most recent costs first. With the same company selling the same 500 widgets in the same accounting time-frame, but expensing their most recent 500 widgets first, here is the rundown:

200 widgets @ $8/widget = $1,600 in COGS

200 widgets @ $7/widget = $1,400 in COGS

100 widgets @ $6/widget = $600 in COGS

For a total of $3,600 expensed

The inventory would be left as the following:

100 widgets @ $6/widget = $600

200 widgets @ $4/widget = $800

For a total of $1,400 in remaining inventory.

Considerations Between LIFO and FIFO

One important consideration when choosing between LIFO or FIFO is that more likely than not input costs rise over time. Therefore, valuations can change based on the type of method.

Looking at the LIFO method, taking out inventory that’s been produced most recently does not always reflect market prices of the remaining inventory, especially if remaining stock is a few years old. Along with Costs of Goods Sold lowering net income, if older inventory is obsolete and it can’t be sold, it’ll render the inventory’s value far below market prices.

When it comes to the FIFO method, you get a better indication of the remaining inventory’s value. However, using this method increases a business’ net income since remaining inventory can be older and is valued by the Cost of Goods Sold. Similarly, if net income increases, there’s also a good chance of greater tax obligations for the company.

These scenarios account for rising prices. However, if prices are falling, then these scenarios would be reversed.

Nov 01
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Tax Changes 2019

By Blog, Tax and Financial News

Tax Changes 2019With the start of the fourth quarter of 2019 underway, it’s time to see what the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) will expect of filers for their 2019 taxes. The following are a list of major changes that filers need to be aware of:

1. Removal of the Affordable Care Act’s (ACA) Individual Mandate Penalty

With the passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), filers and households who failed to carry adequate health insurance according to the ACA’s minimum coverage requirements will no longer have to pay the penalty on their 2019 taxes. This is because the TCJA lowered the penalty to zero dollars permanently. In previous years, households not meeting ACA health insurance requirements were mandated to pay either 2.5 percent of household income or $347.50 per child and $695 per adult, up to $2,085.

2. Greater Medical Expense Deduction Requirements

2019 filers are only able to deduct out-of-pocket medical expenses that exceed 10 percent of their adjusted gross income (AGI). The threshold was lowered to 7.5 percent for the 2017 and 2018 tax years by the TCJA, but will revert to the original 10 percent threshold in 2019.  

3. Changes to Treatment of Alimony

The TCJA removed the ability for those paying alimony to their former spouse to deduct these payments for the 2019 tax year. The IRS also removed deductibility for alimony or separate maintenance payments for divorce or separation agreements signed off after Dec. 31, 2018. If a divorce or separation agreement that provides for alimony or separate maintenance payments was agreed to before Dec. 31, 2018, and is then modified after Dec. 31, 2018, such payments lose deductibility. Former spouses receiving alimony or separate maintenance payments from an agreement created or modified after Dec. 31, 2018, are not required to report such payments on their tax return.  

4. Contribution Limits Raised for Retirement Accounts

Those with 401(k), almost all 457 plans, the federal government’s Thrift Savings Plan and 403(b) account plans can contribute $19,000 in 2019, an increase of $500 from 2018’s $18,500 limit. Taxpayers 50 and older can still contribute another $6,000 for 2019, a catch-up contribution. Taxpayers with Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) can contribute $6,000 in 2019, $500 more than 2018’s $5,500 limit. Those 50 years or older can add another $1,000 to their IRA accounts in 2019. The increase in IRA contribution limits is the first increase since 2013.     

5. Increased HSA Contribution Limits

Health Savings Accounts’ contribution limits for 2019 have increased, according to the IRS. For an individual or a self-only High Deductible Health Plan, 2019’s contribution limit is raised to $3,500, or $50 more than 2018’s contribution limit of $3,450. For a family high deductible health plan, 2019’s contribution limit is raised to $7,000, $100 more than 2018’s contribution limit of $6,900. The catch-up contribution is an extra $1,000 for account holders age 55 or older.

6. Increasing Standard Deduction Allowances

For those choosing not to itemize their deductions in 2019, the IRS has increased standard deduction amounts for filers. For single filers and those filing as married filing separately, the standard deduction increased by $200, to $12,200. For those filing as head of household, the standard deduction increased by $350, to $18,350. For those choosing to file married filing jointly, there’s an increased allowance of $400, to $24,400.

7. 2019 Income Brackets

With the new tax year comes higher income tax brackets. Depending on how much taxpayers made in 2019, the following are the new income level brackets:

  • 37 percent: Individual single taxpayers making more than $510,300 or married couples filing jointly making $612,350.
  • 35 percent: Individuals making more than $204,100, or $408,200 for married couples filing jointly.
  • 32 percent: Individuals making more than $160,725, or $321,450 for married couples filing jointly.
  • 24 percent: Individuals making more than $84,200, or $168,400 for married couples filing jointly.
  • 22 percent: Individuals making more than $39,475, or $78,950 for married couples filing jointly.
  • 12 percent: Individuals making more than $9,700, or $19,400 for married couples filing jointly.
  • 10 percent: Individuals making up to $9,700, or $19,400 for married couples filing jointly.
Oct 01
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Debt Relief for Military Service Members, Veterans, Family Farmers and Small Business Owners

By Blog, Congress at Work

Small Business Reorganization Act of 2019 (HR 3311) – Scheduled to take effect starting in February 2020, this new law offers small businesses more agreeable terms when filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy status. The bill gives owners:

  • More time (90 days) to file a reorganization plan with easier rules for extension
  • The ability to retain ownership of the company even if debts are not paid in full
  • A new formula for debt payments based on projected disposable income over three to five years
  • Reduced red tape through the appointment of a “standing trustee” (instead of a credit committee) to oversee the reorganization process
  • A more “fair and equitable” process to determine owner and creditor equity interests
  • More protection against creditor ability to take away personal assets, such as a home

This bill was introduced by Rep. Ben Cline (R-VA) on June 18 and signed into law by the president on Aug. 23.

HAVEN Act (HR 2938) – Introduced on May 23 by Rep. Lucy McBath (D-GA), this legislation was enacted on Aug. 23. It stands for “Honoring American Veterans in Extreme Need.” The new bill eliminates veterans’ disability benefits (joining the status of Social Security payouts) from being included as income for the purpose of determining how much a veteran who files for personal bankruptcy must pay creditors.

National Guard and Reservists Debt Relief Extension Act of 2019 (HR 3304) – This bill was introduced by Rep. Steve Cohen (D-TN) on June 18 and signed into law on Aug. 23. The legislation reauthorizes an exemption to certain bankruptcy means-testing for members of the National Guard and Reserves (serving on active duty or in a homeland defense activity for at least 90 days) who file for bankruptcy.

Family Farmer Relief Act of 2019 (HR 2366) – This legislation increases the Chapter 12 operating debt cap to $10 million, which will enable more family farmers to seek relief under the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. The bill was introduced on April 3 by Rep. Antonio Delgado (D-NY) and was signed into law by the president on Aug. 23.

Creating Advanced Streamlined Electronic Services for Constituents Act of 2019 (HR 1079) – This bill mandates the Office of Management and Budget to create a private, secure electronic submission process to request assistance for government services such as Social Security, Medicare, Veterans Affairs or any other federal agency. The legislation was introduced on Feb. 7 by Rep. Garrett Graves (R-LA). The president signed the bill into law on Aug. 22.

Emergency Medical Services for Children Program Reauthorization Act of 2019 (HR 776) – This bill reauthorizes (through fiscal year 2024) the Emergency Medical Services for Children Program. This is a grant program administered by the Health Resources and Services Administration that works to improve emergency healthcare for children who are seriously ill or injured. The legislation was sponsored by Rep. Peter King (R-NY). It was introduced on Jan. 24 and signed into law by the president on Aug. 22.

Oct 01
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What is VPN and Why Do You Need It?

By Blog, What's New in Technology

The rise in the number of data breaches reported every other day has become a major concern – even to the ordinary internet user. As a result, we have all become aware of the need to maintain privacy while online. One of the measures promising to keep you safe on the internet is the use of a virtual private network (VPN). But before rushing to install one of the many VPNs available, it’s important to understand what a VPN is, why you need it, if it is foolproof and other ways to stay safe on the internet.

What is a VPN?

The VPN service lets you browse the internet privately by masking your IP address – the unique address identifying your device on the web. It also encrypts your internet traffic as it passes through a secure tunnel created from your device to a remote server. Your data appears to be coming from the remote server. This means that a VPN can hide your geographical location, personal data, web browsing history, spending habits and mobile phone activities.

Initially, VPNs were built for business environments to help a business operate a secure network connection. But with today’s cyber security concerns, they have become popular and more widespread.

Why Would You Need to Use a VPN?

There are numerous reasons why a person would need to enlist the services of a VPN company. Here are some situations that require the use of a VPN:

  • Since Congress cleared the way for ISPs to sell users’ browsing history without their consent, privacy is a thing of the past. This means that an internet service provider can sell your browsing data to third parties. A VPN can mask your IP address from your service provider.
  • The encryption offered by VPNs guards against digital threats, hacking, malware attacks and identify theft.
  • VPNs help keep hackers and marketers from tracking your movement online.
  • If you travel to a country where you can’t access some sites, for instance in China where Facebook is not allowed, a VPN will help you stay in touch on any of these blocked sites.
  • When using public Wi-Fi in airports or any other place that offers free Wi-Fi, a VPN comes in handy.
  • Employers who have workers going out for field work or working remotely can set up a VPN to help access company networks securely.
  • Used by whistleblowers, law enforcement agencies, investigative journalists and others who want to shield their identities or location.
  • For user with Voice over IP (VOIP) for making calls, a VPN will help prevent your phone conversations from being tracked or intercepted.
  • When you need to visit questionable websites but want to be safe. For instance, when your identity is stolen and you want to find the website selling your data.

The Bad Side of Using a VPN

Although a VPN service may sound perfect for internet security, it also has some disadvantages. Keep in mind that your internet service provider may no longer have your data, but the VPN provider now has access to it.

A VPN is not 100 percent guaranteed. The VPN provider could be disconnected or there could be a Domain Name Server (DNS) leak. Even with advanced features such as kill switch, VPN data can still leak through software, hardware or other means.

If you fail to use the right VPN, you’ll be in more problems than you are running from. Some VPNs (especially the free services) keep log files. There is no telling where your private data will end up. They could end up selling your data to third parties or supplying your information to the government.

These services also slow down your internet access speed due to the process of data encryption and tunneling network traffic to a remote server that is used to connect you to the internet.

It is not possible to know if the VPN provider commits to what they promise. The only way to find out is when things go wrong. They may promise not to keep logs, but if you fail to read the privacy policy of a VPN company, you will not know if they retain customer data.

A VPN doesn’t protect you from viruses and malware.

Other Security Measures

Since a VPN is not foolproof, it is important that you also observe other security measures to protect your privacy.

It is crucial that you practice digital privacy hygiene. In other words, when online you should limit the amount of personal information that you share. This will help minimize your digital footprint.

Investing in quality antivirus software will protect your device from malware and viruses.

Regularly check if your data has been compromised. Check for strange activity in your emails, social media accounts and even in your bank account.

Use strong passwords or other security features such as biometrics to secure your accounts.

Final Word

You may come across many different types of products and services that promise to keep you safe on the internet. The bottom line is, it’s up to you to protect yourself. A combination of several security measures is a good starting point – the use of a VPN, strong passwords and antivirus programs.

Oct 01
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How Parents Can Save Money for College-Bound Kids

By Blog, Tip of the Month

No matter how old your children are, it’s always a good idea to start saving for college as soon as possible. (Yes, even when they’re still in diapers.) This might sound overwhelming, especially if you haven’t started, but take heart, it’s never too late. Here are a few things to do before you start saving, as well as smart ways to gather the resources you’ll need.

Figure Out How Much College Will Cost

Is your child interested in a state school? A small private university? Or a trade school? Create a list of schools, do the math and figure out a ballpark number of how much you’ll need. When you do this, you can calculate how much per month or year you need to set aside. The truth is that state schools are generally a lot less expensive. However, because private universities rely heavily on private donations, they also have a healthy number of scholarships available. If your child is more interested in a trade school, these can be even more affordable, depending on what they want to study.

Create a Long-Term Spreadsheet for All Your Expenses

You may want your children to go to college, but that’s not the only goal for a family. There’s saving for your own retirement, paying your mortgage and credit card bills. You’ll also want to save for emergencies. A good rule of thumb is to save up for three to six months of expenses. All of this might sound tough, but if you create a priority list, it’s absolutely possible.

Start an Education Savings Account (ESA)

Also known as an Education IRA, this fund allows you to save $2,000 (after taxes) per child, per year. And here’s the best part: it grows tax-free! You’ll also most likely earn a higher rate of return than you would with a regular savings account. But know this: you must be within the income limit to qualify; contributions are limited to $2,000 a year; and the money must be used by the time your child is 30.

Consider a 529 Plan

If the ESA sounds too limiting or you don’t meet the income limits, then a 529 Plan is a great option. You can contribute up to $300,000, but this varies by state. What’s more, most of the time there aren’t any income limits or restrictions based on age. And again, the cherry on top: it grows tax-free. But something to be mindful of when you’re shopping for a plan is whether you want to choose the funds you invest in through the account. Some 529s offer preselected funds or automatically change your investments based on the age of your child. Also, restrictions may apply if you choose to transfer your 529 Plan to another child.

Look into a UTMA or UGMA

Otherwise known as Uniform Transfer/Gift to Minors Act, this option is different because it is not created just for college savings. The account will be set up in your child’s name, but it will be controlled by a custodian, which is usually a parent or grandparent. When your child turns 21, the control of the account transfers to the child. While there are tax advantages for you, a significant downside is that your child can use the funds any way she wants. (College or trip to Vegas?)

Saving for college, especially these days, might seem daunting. But it’s not impossible. In fact, if you chart a course and stick to it, you’ll be in good shape when those little ones of yours become all grown up.

SOURCES

https://www.daveramsey.com/blog/saving-for-college-is-easier-than-you-think

https://www.daveramsey.com/dave-ramsey-7-baby-steps?int_cmpgn=no_campaign&int_dept=dr_blog_bu&int_lctn=Blog-Text_Link&int_fmt=text&int_dscpn=saving_for_college_blog-inline_link_baby_step_5#baby_step_5

Oct 01
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How to Inflation-Proof a Retirement Portfolio

By Blog, Financial Planning

Statistics indicate that the average life expectancy is longer than it used to be, but empirically we see this every day among elderly people who have lived much longer than they probably expected. This phenomenon spotlights a particular component of retirement planning that was not as significant in the past as it is now: long-term inflation.

While we’ve not experienced annual inflation rates this century as high as the latter part of the 20th century, inflation can balloon at any time. But what can be even more devastating to a retiree on a fixed income is cumulative inflation over time. It’s also important to recognize that specific consumer product inflation rates can differ substantially from the averages.

For example, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the cost (not always the price a consumer pays) of an oil change in 2000 was about $20. However, motor oil, coolant and fluids have experienced an average inflation rate of 5.66 percent per year – so in 2019 the cost of providing an oil change was about $56.89. That’s a 184.45 percent increase in less than 20 years for a common household expense during a normal retirement timeframe.

To build a portfolio designed to provide inflation-adjusted income throughout a long retirement, consider the following tactics.

Optimize Your Social Security Benefits

Social Security benefits receive periodic cost of living adjustments (COLA) based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is a weighted average of prices of common goods and services purchased by all urban consumers. However, retirees spend more of their household income on goods and services that experience higher levels of inflation, such as medical services. Therefore, Social Security benefit increases might not keep up with a retiree’s actual cost of living – especially over time.

That’s why it’s important to consider inflation in order to optimize your Social Security benefits. In other words, except for people in exceedingly poor health (expected to die within a few years) or in dire circumstances, it’s a good idea to delay starting Social Security benefits as long as you can. If you can wait until age 70, benefits will increase by as much as 8 percent each 12-month period past your full retirement age. Delaying not only increases the level of income you’ll receive each month, but it also gives you more time to save money for retirement and allows your investments more time to grow.

Inflation-Aligned Investments

Another way to inflation-proof your retirement portfolio is to allocate a portion of assets to investments that tend to increase at the same pace as inflation. The following are some options you might want to consider.

  • Series I Savings Bond – The I-Bond, guaranteed by the federal ­government, helps protect an investor from creeping inflation in a couple of ways. First, the I-Bond credits the holder’s account with a fixed interest rate plus the annualized inflation rate from the preceding six months. Second, the account value does not drop when prices fall.
  • TIPS – Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are marketable securities whose principal increases and decreases in tandem with the inflation rate (adjusted every six months). However, the coupon rate is fixed, so payouts vary based only on the inflation-adjusted principal. Upon maturity, the investor receives the greater of the adjusted principal or the original principal.
  • CIPS – Corporate Inflation Protected Securities (CIPS) are similar to TIPS, but they invest in corporate bonds and typically pay a higher yield that combines a fixed payout plus the variable CPI rate. Unlike TIPS, they are not guaranteed by the U.S. government but are backed by the financial strength of the issuing company.
  • REITS – A Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) pays out reliable dividend income that tends to rise with inflation. REITS own or finance a diversified portfolio of income-producing real estate, such as office buildings, apartment buildings, warehouses, retail centers or hotels. REIT dividends have outpaced inflation in all but two of the past 20 years, according to the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts.
  • IPA – With an inflation-protected annuity (IPA), initial income payouts are low but rise over time to align with long-term inflation, based on a formula linked to the CPI. A differentiating benefit of an IPA is that it offers issuer-guaranteed income for life, so the retiree doesn’t have to worry about reinvesting assets during later stages of retirement.

It is a good idea to work with a financial advisor to incorporate inflation-resistant investments for your retirement portfolio based on your individual objectives, tolerance for risk and timeline.

Oct 01
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Will China’s Recent Soybean Purchase Begin Thawing the Trade War?

By Blog, Stock Market News

With the United States Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agriculture Service announcing a purchase of 204,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans by private Chinese importers, there are hopes that the trade war is beginning to dissipate.

Seeing that the last significant purchase of U.S. soybeans by China was in June, professional traders see the September acquisitions as a potential weakening of the U.S.-China trade war. With the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service announcing more than 600,000 tons of U.S. soybeans purchased by private Chinese operators on Sept. 13, 16 and 17, there are signs of positive movement between the two nations.

The shipments are expected to leave between October and December from ports in the Pacific Northwest. Looking at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, soybean futures hit monthly highs on Sept. 16. Coupled with November futures contracts well off their lows, this shows renewed promise. The purchase of soybeans is part of China’s gesture of goodwill to buy other agricultural products, such as pork, during ongoing trade negotiations.

These recent developments are important because China increased tariffs on American soybeans by 25 percent in July 2018 in response to the Trump Administration’s tariffs. On Sept. 1, 2019, U.S. soybeans were subject to another 5 percent in import tariffs by China.

The Context of Soybean Sales

Based on data from the United States International Trade Commission (USITC), there was a drop in soy exports from the U.S. to China to $3.1 billion, or 18 percent of U.S. soybean exports for 2018.

The 2018 U.S. soybean export figure to China represents a drop of 75 percent, compared to 2017’s U.S. sales exports of soybeans worth $12.2 billion to China. The large drop in 2018 is also noteworthy against U.S. exports of soybeans to China in 2016 of $10.5 billion. This drop was directly attributable to trade tensions.

It’s important to note that soybeans are America’s biggest agricultural export (16 percent of all agricultural exports) – $20.9 billion annually on average between 2014 and 2018. With China importing more than 50 percent of U.S. soy over the past 60 months, it illustrates why the trade war has been so impactful. In response to the sharp drop in exports to China, 2018 began the quest for U.S. growers of soybeans to counteract the $9.1 billion drop in soy exports to China by finding new buyers in Mexico, the European Union and Egypt.

Similarly, as the Congressional Research Service points out, trade talks are working toward building upon an existing $12.9 billion of U.S. agricultural exports to Japan, as of 2018. Current talks have expectations for an additional $7 billion in U.S. agricultural exports to Japan. Soybeans, along with dairy, wine, beef and pork, are examples of agricultural imports Japan is willing to buy, based on soon-to-be released details from finalized U.S.-Japanese trade talks.  

However, despite maintaining a competitive or even subpar price against competitor nations such as Brazil, it didn’t sway the Chinese to buy more American soy. Much like American farmers and with China’s state-influenced help, there may be long-term, structural changes for future Chinese soybean purchases even if trade tensions subside. However, China also has established new suppliers of soybeans from Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Russia.

While many do expect a trade deal between the United States and China, there could very well be structural and long-lasting changes on how both countries conduct trade for years to come.

Oct 01
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When Full Costing Accounting Makes Sense

By Blog, General Business News

With more than 1.4 million accounting jobs in 2018, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there are many different uses for accountants and their skills. With the need for accuracy and transparency in private and public accounting, one important concept to explore is absorption, or full costing.

Absorption or full costing is an accounting method that is used by businesses to determine the complete cost of producing products or services.

When it comes to calculating the full cost, there are three main categories taken in account:

  1. Direct Costs – How much material, labor, machinery, etc. it costs to produce each product.
  2. Total Amount of Fixed Costs – Examples include monthly rent payments, tax payments, base salaries, etc. These are the types of expenses a company would incur regardless of the level of production.
  3. Total Amount of Variable Costs – If there’s increased demand for a particular product, companies would incur variable costs to meet that demand. Examples would include additional wage payments, increased electricity bills for extended or additional shifts, etc. Unlike a pre-negotiated rate for a lease, paying overtime or for more staff would vary based on changes in production needs.

It’s important to note that with absorption or full costing, regardless of the accounting period, both variable and fixed selling and administrative costs are not included when calculating cost per item. These costs are accounted for in the accounting time, whenever the expenses actually occurred or on an accrual basis.

Along with being GAAP-compliant (following Generally Accepting Accounting Principles) when it comes to absorption or full costing, the direct material costs, labor costs and variable and fixed overhead expenses are factored into the per-product cost to the point of sale. Once sold, the expenses will then be reflected on the Income Statement within the COGS fields (Costs of Good Sold).

Further Considerations and Differences with Variable Costing

The primary difference between full costing and variable costing can be seen when it comes to fixed overhead manufacturing costs.

For the absorption or full costing approach, fixed manufacturing overhead costs are recognized when the product is sold. With the variable costing method, the fixed manufacturing overhead costs are accounted for when the business incurs the expenses for that product (i.e., during production time).

Whether or not produced items are sold or still part of the business’ inventory, the absorption costing approach assigns all expenses to the inventory. This helps companies calculate their net profit more precisely. The approach to determining net profit is especially helpful if a company’s inventory is unsold after the accounting timeframe when production occurred.

When fixed costs such as insurance, salary, advertising and related expenses add up quickly and to great amounts, this is something to keep in mind when determining private performance and public perception for publicly traded companies.

Sources

https://www.bls.gov/ooh/business-and-financial/accountants-and-auditors.htm

 

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